The Royals go to Derby on Sunday knowing that they must get a positive result to have any realistic chance of moving out of the bottom three and avoiding relegation.

Derby vs Reading
We travel to Pride Park to take on a Derby side who will end the season with the lowest total in Premier League history. They are currently on 11 points, with one win and eight draws. Their only win was at home to Newcastle back in September, and their last point was at home to Sunderland on 1st March. Their home record is W1 D5 L12, GF12 GA39.

The Royals' last win was on 22nd March when we beat Birmingham 2-1 at home, and that was also the last game in which we scored. Our last point was away at Wigan two weeks ago. Our away record this season is W1 D4 L13.

Portsmouth vs Fulham
Only the top four clubs have lost fewer games at home than Portsmouth this season. They have drawn a fair number though, with W7, D8 L3 their record at Fratton.

The Cottagers go south with a record of W2 D7 L9 away from home. They have scored 15 and conceded 29 on their travels, and until they played at Madejski Stadium they had not won away in the league for more than 18 months.

Birmingham vs Blackburn
Only Derby have won fewer games at home than Birmingham this season. They have a record of W5 D8 L5. They have the highest number of home draws, sharing that record with Portsmouth. Their last win was at home to Man City at the end of March, and they drew with Liverpool two weeks ago.

The permutations
Approaching the final games, two out of four teams will be relegated, and the situation at the bottom of the table is:

Bolton 36pts, GD-18
Fulham 33pts, GD-23
Reading 33pts, GD-29
Birmingham 32pts, GD-19

A win would make us safe if Fulham fail to win when they face Portsmouth at Fratton Park. Birmingham's result at home to Blackburn would then be irrelevant and they would be down.

A draw would see us safe if Fulham lose, as well as Birmingham losing to Blackburn.

If Fulham win, we could still stay up with a huge victory at Derby, but it would need to be along the lines of an unprecented 7-0 or 8-0. If we were to equal Fulham's goal difference that would be enough because we would have scored more goals.

We would need an even bigger turnaroud to overtake Bolton, who are away at Chelsea.

The only way we could stay up with a defeat is if Fulham are improbably hammered by six goals at Pompey, and Birmingham also lose.